Van 0–1 Alashkert II: Result & Stats | First League

Van

FT

0 – 1

Alashkert II

9/30/2019

First League · Round 9Charentsavan City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Van75%

×Draw14%

Alashkert II11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VanExpected goals in this matchAlashkert II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.94

1.05

Van

2.94

Alashkert II

1.05

Van creates 180% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 64 away

3.29

creates per match

1.39

0.71

allows per match

2.58

creates per match

Van

3.29

Alashkert II

1.39

allows per match

Van

0.71

Alashkert II

2.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Van+0.00on par

Alashkert II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Van ↓

Alashkert II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Van or draw

89%

Van or Alashkert II

86%

Draw or Alashkert II

25%

Winning margin

Van wins by 2+

55%

Alashkert II wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Van 1+ goals

95%

Van 2+ goals

79%

Van 3+ goals

55%

Alashkert II 1+ goals

65%

Alashkert II 2+ goals

28%

Alashkert II 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Van (draw refunded)

87%

Alashkert II (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Van at home — creates 3.29, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Alashkert II away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.58 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Van attack 3.29 + Alashkert II defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.94

Alashkert II attack 1.39 + Van defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Van scores more

75%

level

14%

Alashkert II scores more

11%

Van at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Van will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff