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Alashkert II vs Van — First League 2019

Alashkert II
Alashkert II
FT
1 – 2
Van
Van
6/15/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 26Pyunik Training Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Alashkert II13%
×Draw16%
Van71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alashkert II
1.10
Van
2.74

Van creates 149% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 14 away

creates per match

Alashkert II
1.63
Van
3.14

allows per match

Alashkert II
2.34
Van
0.57

finishing

Alashkert II+0.00on par
Van+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alashkert II ↓

Van →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Alashkert II or draw
29%
Alashkert II or Van
84%
Draw or Van
87%

Winning margin

Alashkert II wins by 2+
5%
Van wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Alashkert II 1+ goals
67%
Alashkert II 2+ goals
30%
Alashkert II 3+ goals
10%
Van 1+ goals
93%
Van 2+ goals
75%
Van 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Alashkert II (draw refunded)
15%
Van (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alashkert II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.34 · 62 matches

Van away — creates 3.14, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alashkert II attack 1.63 + Van defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.10

Van attack 3.14 + Alashkert II defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Alashkert II scores more
13%
level
16%
Van scores more
71%

Van at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Van will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alashkert II vs Van

Van beat Alashkert II 2-1 in First League on June 15, 2020.

The match was played at Pyunik Training Centre in Yerevan.