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Van Pars Isfahan vs Saipa — Azadegan League 2018

Van Pars Isfahan
Van Pars Isfahan
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Saipa
Saipa
3/10/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 25Folād Shahr Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Van Pars Isfahan48%
×Draw31%
Saipa22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Van Pars Isfahan
1.18
Saipa
0.69

Van Pars Isfahan creates 71% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 84 away

creates per match

Van Pars Isfahan
1.44
Saipa
0.75

allows per match

Van Pars Isfahan
0.63
Saipa
0.92

finishing

Van Pars Isfahan+0.00on par
Saipa+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Van Pars Isfahan ↓

Saipa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Van Pars Isfahan or draw
78%
Van Pars Isfahan or Saipa
69%
Draw or Saipa
52%

Winning margin

Van Pars Isfahan wins by 2+
21%
Saipa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Van Pars Isfahan 1+ goals
69%
Van Pars Isfahan 2+ goals
33%
Van Pars Isfahan 3+ goals
12%
Saipa 1+ goals
50%
Saipa 2+ goals
15%
Saipa 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Van Pars Isfahan (draw refunded)
69%
Saipa (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Van Pars Isfahan at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

Saipa away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.92 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Van Pars Isfahan attack 1.44 + Saipa defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.18

Saipa attack 0.75 + Van Pars Isfahan defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Van Pars Isfahan scores more
48%
level
31%
Saipa scores more
22%

Van Pars Isfahan at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Van Pars Isfahan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Van Pars Isfahan 4–0 Saipa

Van Pars Isfahan beat Saipa 4-0 in Azadegan League on March 10, 2023.

The match was played at Folād Shahr Stadium in Fooladshahr.