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Saipa vs Van Pars Isfahan — Azadegan League 2018

Saipa
Saipa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Van Pars Isfahan
Van Pars Isfahan
10/11/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 8Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Saipa51%
×Draw31%
Van Pars Isfahan18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saipa
1.19
Van Pars Isfahan
0.57

Saipa creates 109% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 16 away

creates per match

Saipa
1.18
Van Pars Isfahan
0.56

allows per match

Saipa
0.58
Van Pars Isfahan
1.19

finishing

Saipa+0.00on par
Van Pars Isfahan+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saipa ↓

Van Pars Isfahan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Saipa or draw
82%
Saipa or Van Pars Isfahan
69%
Draw or Van Pars Isfahan
49%

Winning margin

Saipa wins by 2+
23%
Van Pars Isfahan wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Saipa 1+ goals
70%
Saipa 2+ goals
33%
Saipa 3+ goals
12%
Van Pars Isfahan 1+ goals
43%
Van Pars Isfahan 2+ goals
11%
Van Pars Isfahan 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Saipa (draw refunded)
74%
Van Pars Isfahan (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saipa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.58 · 84 matches

Van Pars Isfahan away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saipa attack 1.18 + Van Pars Isfahan defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Van Pars Isfahan attack 0.56 + Saipa defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Saipa scores more
51%
level
31%
Van Pars Isfahan scores more
18%

Saipa at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Saipa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Saipa 1–0 Van Pars Isfahan

Saipa beat Van Pars Isfahan 1-0 in Azadegan League on October 11, 2022.

The match was played at Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium in Teheran.