Van Pars Isfahan 2–0 Khalij Fars: Result & Stats

Van Pars Isfahan

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Khalij Fars

4/5/2023

Azadegan League · Round 28Folād Shahr Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Van Pars Isfahan64%

×Draw24%

Khalij Fars12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Van Pars IsfahanExpected goals in this matchKhalij Fars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.55

Van Pars Isfahan

1.64

Khalij Fars

0.55

Van Pars Isfahan creates 198% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 25 away

1.44

creates per match

0.48

0.63

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Van Pars Isfahan

1.44

Khalij Fars

0.48

allows per match

Van Pars Isfahan

0.63

Khalij Fars

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Van Pars Isfahan+0.00on par

Khalij Fars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Van Pars Isfahan ↓

Khalij Fars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Van Pars Isfahan or draw

88%

Van Pars Isfahan or Khalij Fars

76%

Draw or Khalij Fars

36%

Winning margin

Van Pars Isfahan wins by 2+

36%

Khalij Fars wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Van Pars Isfahan 1+ goals

81%

Van Pars Isfahan 2+ goals

49%

Van Pars Isfahan 3+ goals

23%

Khalij Fars 1+ goals

42%

Khalij Fars 2+ goals

11%

Khalij Fars 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Van Pars Isfahan (draw refunded)

84%

Khalij Fars (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Van Pars Isfahan at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

Khalij Fars away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.84 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Van Pars Isfahan attack 1.44 + Khalij Fars defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.64

Khalij Fars attack 0.48 + Van Pars Isfahan defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Van Pars Isfahan scores more

64%

level

24%

Khalij Fars scores more

12%

Van Pars Isfahan at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Van Pars Isfahan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff