Khalij Fars 0–1 Van Pars Isfahan: Result & Stats

Khalij Fars

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Van Pars Isfahan

10/31/2022

Azadegan League · Round 11Shohada Mahshahr

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Khalij Fars39%

×Draw32%

Van Pars Isfahan30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khalij FarsExpected goals in this matchVan Pars Isfahan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

0.86

Khalij Fars

1.03

Van Pars Isfahan

0.86

Khalij Fars creates 20% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 16 away

0.88

creates per match

0.56

1.16

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Khalij Fars

0.88

Van Pars Isfahan

0.56

allows per match

Khalij Fars

1.16

Van Pars Isfahan

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khalij Fars+0.00on par

Van Pars Isfahan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khalij Fars ↓

Van Pars Isfahan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Khalij Fars or draw

70%

Khalij Fars or Van Pars Isfahan

68%

Draw or Van Pars Isfahan

61%

Winning margin

Khalij Fars wins by 2+

15%

Van Pars Isfahan wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Khalij Fars 1+ goals

64%

Khalij Fars 2+ goals

28%

Khalij Fars 3+ goals

9%

Van Pars Isfahan 1+ goals

58%

Van Pars Isfahan 2+ goals

21%

Van Pars Isfahan 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Khalij Fars (draw refunded)

57%

Van Pars Isfahan (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khalij Fars at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

Van Pars Isfahan away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khalij Fars attack 0.88 + Van Pars Isfahan defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.03

Van Pars Isfahan attack 0.56 + Khalij Fars defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Khalij Fars scores more

39%

level

32%

Van Pars Isfahan scores more

30%

Khalij Fars at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Khalij Fars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff