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Van Pars Isfahan vs Esteghlal Mollasani — Azadegan League 2018

Van Pars Isfahan
Van Pars Isfahan
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Esteghlal Mollasani
Esteghlal Mollasani
12/25/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 16Folād Shahr Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Van Pars Isfahan53%
×Draw28%
Esteghlal Mollasani20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Van Pars Isfahan
1.38
Esteghlal Mollasani
0.72

Van Pars Isfahan creates 92% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 68 away

creates per match

Van Pars Isfahan
1.44
Esteghlal Mollasani
0.82

allows per match

Van Pars Isfahan
0.63
Esteghlal Mollasani
1.31

finishing

Van Pars Isfahan+0.00on par
Esteghlal Mollasani+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Van Pars Isfahan ↓

Esteghlal Mollasani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Van Pars Isfahan or draw
80%
Van Pars Isfahan or Esteghlal Mollasani
72%
Draw or Esteghlal Mollasani
47%

Winning margin

Van Pars Isfahan wins by 2+
26%
Esteghlal Mollasani wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Van Pars Isfahan 1+ goals
75%
Van Pars Isfahan 2+ goals
40%
Van Pars Isfahan 3+ goals
16%
Esteghlal Mollasani 1+ goals
51%
Esteghlal Mollasani 2+ goals
16%
Esteghlal Mollasani 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Van Pars Isfahan (draw refunded)
73%
Esteghlal Mollasani (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Van Pars Isfahan at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

Esteghlal Mollasani away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Van Pars Isfahan attack 1.44 + Esteghlal Mollasani defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.38

Esteghlal Mollasani attack 0.82 + Van Pars Isfahan defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Van Pars Isfahan scores more
53%
level
28%
Esteghlal Mollasani scores more
20%

Van Pars Isfahan at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Van Pars Isfahan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Van Pars Isfahan 2–0 Esteghlal Mollasani

Van Pars Isfahan beat Esteghlal Mollasani 2-0 in Azadegan League on December 25, 2022.

The match was played at Folād Shahr Stadium in Fooladshahr.