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Esteghlal Mollasani vs Van Pars Isfahan — Azadegan League 2018

Esteghlal Mollasani
Esteghlal Mollasani
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Van Pars Isfahan
Van Pars Isfahan
5/17/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 33Ahvāz Takhti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Esteghlal Mollasani45%
×Draw32%
Van Pars Isfahan23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal Mollasani
1.11
Van Pars Isfahan
0.70

Esteghlal Mollasani creates 59% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 16 away

creates per match

Esteghlal Mollasani
1.04
Van Pars Isfahan
0.56

allows per match

Esteghlal Mollasani
0.84
Van Pars Isfahan
1.19

finishing

Esteghlal Mollasani+0.00on par
Van Pars Isfahan+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Mollasani ↓

Van Pars Isfahan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Esteghlal Mollasani or draw
77%
Esteghlal Mollasani or Van Pars Isfahan
68%
Draw or Van Pars Isfahan
55%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Mollasani wins by 2+
19%
Van Pars Isfahan wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Esteghlal Mollasani 1+ goals
67%
Esteghlal Mollasani 2+ goals
30%
Esteghlal Mollasani 3+ goals
10%
Van Pars Isfahan 1+ goals
50%
Van Pars Isfahan 2+ goals
16%
Van Pars Isfahan 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Mollasani (draw refunded)
66%
Van Pars Isfahan (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Mollasani at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.84 · 67 matches

Van Pars Isfahan away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Mollasani attack 1.04 + Van Pars Isfahan defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.11

Van Pars Isfahan attack 0.56 + Esteghlal Mollasani defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Esteghlal Mollasani scores more
45%
level
32%
Van Pars Isfahan scores more
23%

Esteghlal Mollasani at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Esteghlal Mollasani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esteghlal Mollasani vs Van Pars Isfahan

Esteghlal Mollasani and Van Pars Isfahan drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on May 17, 2023.

The match was played at Ahvāz Takhti in Ahwaz.