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Van Pars Isfahan vs Chooka Talesh — Azadegan League 2018

Van Pars Isfahan
Van Pars Isfahan
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chooka Talesh
Chooka Talesh
4/22/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 30Folād Shahr Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Van Pars Isfahan61%
×Draw25%
Chooka Talesh14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Van Pars Isfahan
1.58
Chooka Talesh
0.62

Van Pars Isfahan creates 155% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 33 away

creates per match

Van Pars Isfahan
1.44
Chooka Talesh
0.61

allows per match

Van Pars Isfahan
0.63
Chooka Talesh
1.73

finishing

Van Pars Isfahan+0.00on par
Chooka Talesh+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Van Pars Isfahan ↓

Chooka Talesh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Van Pars Isfahan or draw
86%
Van Pars Isfahan or Chooka Talesh
75%
Draw or Chooka Talesh
39%

Winning margin

Van Pars Isfahan wins by 2+
33%
Chooka Talesh wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Van Pars Isfahan 1+ goals
79%
Van Pars Isfahan 2+ goals
47%
Van Pars Isfahan 3+ goals
21%
Chooka Talesh 1+ goals
46%
Chooka Talesh 2+ goals
13%
Chooka Talesh 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Van Pars Isfahan (draw refunded)
81%
Chooka Talesh (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Van Pars Isfahan at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

Chooka Talesh away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Van Pars Isfahan attack 1.44 + Chooka Talesh defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.58

Chooka Talesh attack 0.61 + Van Pars Isfahan defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Van Pars Isfahan scores more
61%
level
25%
Chooka Talesh scores more
14%

Van Pars Isfahan at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Van Pars Isfahan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Van Pars Isfahan vs Chooka Talesh

Van Pars Isfahan beat Chooka Talesh 1-0 in Azadegan League on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Folād Shahr Stadium in Fooladshahr.