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Chooka Talesh vs Van Pars Isfahan — Azadegan League 2018

Chooka Talesh
Chooka Talesh
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Van Pars Isfahan
Van Pars Isfahan
11/12/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 13Pouria Vali Talesh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Chooka Talesh42%
×Draw30%
Van Pars Isfahan29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chooka Talesh
1.17
Van Pars Isfahan
0.92

Chooka Talesh creates 27% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 16 away

creates per match

Chooka Talesh
1.15
Van Pars Isfahan
0.56

allows per match

Chooka Talesh
1.27
Van Pars Isfahan
1.19

finishing

Chooka Talesh+0.00on par
Van Pars Isfahan+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chooka Talesh ↓

Van Pars Isfahan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Chooka Talesh or draw
71%
Chooka Talesh or Van Pars Isfahan
70%
Draw or Van Pars Isfahan
58%

Winning margin

Chooka Talesh wins by 2+
18%
Van Pars Isfahan wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chooka Talesh 1+ goals
69%
Chooka Talesh 2+ goals
33%
Chooka Talesh 3+ goals
11%
Van Pars Isfahan 1+ goals
60%
Van Pars Isfahan 2+ goals
23%
Van Pars Isfahan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Chooka Talesh (draw refunded)
59%
Van Pars Isfahan (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chooka Talesh at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

Van Pars Isfahan away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chooka Talesh attack 1.15 + Van Pars Isfahan defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Van Pars Isfahan attack 0.56 + Chooka Talesh defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chooka Talesh scores more
42%
level
30%
Van Pars Isfahan scores more
29%

Chooka Talesh at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chooka Talesh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Chooka Talesh 1–2 Van Pars Isfahan

Van Pars Isfahan beat Chooka Talesh 2-1 in Azadegan League on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Pouria Vali Talesh Stadium in Talesh.