Van Pars Isfahan 0–2 Chadormalu SC: Result & Stats

Van Pars Isfahan

FT

0 – 2

Chadormalu SC

3/16/2023

Azadegan League · Round 26Folād Shahr Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Van Pars Isfahan37%

×Draw32%

Chadormalu SC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Van Pars IsfahanExpected goals in this matchChadormalu SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.90

Van Pars Isfahan

1.02

Chadormalu SC

0.90

Van Pars Isfahan creates 13% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 31 away

1.44

creates per match

1.16

0.63

allows per match

0.61

creates per match

Van Pars Isfahan

1.44

Chadormalu SC

1.16

allows per match

Van Pars Isfahan

0.63

Chadormalu SC

0.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Van Pars Isfahan+0.00on par

Chadormalu SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Van Pars Isfahan ↓

Chadormalu SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Van Pars Isfahan or draw

69%

Van Pars Isfahan or Chadormalu SC

68%

Draw or Chadormalu SC

63%

Winning margin

Van Pars Isfahan wins by 2+

14%

Chadormalu SC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Van Pars Isfahan 1+ goals

64%

Van Pars Isfahan 2+ goals

27%

Van Pars Isfahan 3+ goals

8%

Chadormalu SC 1+ goals

59%

Chadormalu SC 2+ goals

23%

Chadormalu SC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Van Pars Isfahan (draw refunded)

55%

Chadormalu SC (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Van Pars Isfahan at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

Chadormalu SC away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Van Pars Isfahan attack 1.44 + Chadormalu SC defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.02

Chadormalu SC attack 1.16 + Van Pars Isfahan defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Van Pars Isfahan scores more

37%

level

32%

Chadormalu SC scores more

31%

Van Pars Isfahan at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Van Pars Isfahan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff