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Chadormalu SC vs Van Pars Isfahan — Azadegan League 2018

Chadormalu SC
Chadormalu SC
FT
2 – 0
Van Pars Isfahan
Van Pars Isfahan
10/18/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 9Nasiri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Chadormalu SC48%
×Draw30%
Van Pars Isfahan22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chadormalu SC
1.24
Van Pars Isfahan
0.73

Chadormalu SC creates 70% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 16 away

creates per match

Chadormalu SC
1.29
Van Pars Isfahan
0.56

allows per match

Chadormalu SC
0.90
Van Pars Isfahan
1.19

finishing

Chadormalu SC+0.00on par
Van Pars Isfahan+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chadormalu SC ↓

Van Pars Isfahan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Chadormalu SC or draw
78%
Chadormalu SC or Van Pars Isfahan
70%
Draw or Van Pars Isfahan
52%

Winning margin

Chadormalu SC wins by 2+
22%
Van Pars Isfahan wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Chadormalu SC 1+ goals
71%
Chadormalu SC 2+ goals
35%
Chadormalu SC 3+ goals
13%
Van Pars Isfahan 1+ goals
52%
Van Pars Isfahan 2+ goals
17%
Van Pars Isfahan 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Chadormalu SC (draw refunded)
69%
Van Pars Isfahan (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chadormalu SC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.90 · 31 matches

Van Pars Isfahan away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chadormalu SC attack 1.29 + Van Pars Isfahan defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.24

Van Pars Isfahan attack 0.56 + Chadormalu SC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Chadormalu SC scores more
48%
level
30%
Van Pars Isfahan scores more
22%

Chadormalu SC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Chadormalu SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chadormalu SC vs Van Pars Isfahan

Chadormalu SC beat Van Pars Isfahan 2-0 in Azadegan League on October 18, 2022.

The match was played at Nasiri Stadium in Yazd.