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Valpovka vs NAŠK Našice — League #217 2026

Valpovka
Valpovka
FT
2 – 2
NAŠK Našice
NAŠK Našice
4/6/2024League #217League #217 · East - 22Stadion Valpovka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Valpovka71%
×Draw19%
NAŠK Našice11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valpovka
2.13
NAŠK Našice
0.68

Valpovka creates 213% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 28 away

creates per match

Valpovka
2.00
NAŠK Našice
0.86

allows per match

Valpovka
0.50
NAŠK Našice
2.25

finishing

Valpovka+0.00on par
NAŠK Našice+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valpovka ↓

NAŠK Našice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Valpovka or draw
89%
Valpovka or NAŠK Našice
81%
Draw or NAŠK Našice
29%

Winning margin

Valpovka wins by 2+
46%
NAŠK Našice wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Valpovka 1+ goals
88%
Valpovka 2+ goals
63%
Valpovka 3+ goals
35%
NAŠK Našice 1+ goals
49%
NAŠK Našice 2+ goals
15%
NAŠK Našice 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Valpovka (draw refunded)
87%
NAŠK Našice (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valpovka at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

NAŠK Našice away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valpovka attack 2.00 + NAŠK Našice defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.13

NAŠK Našice attack 0.86 + Valpovka defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Valpovka scores more
71%
level
19%
NAŠK Našice scores more
11%

Valpovka at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Valpovka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #217: Valpovka 2–2 NAŠK Našice

Valpovka and NAŠK Našice drew 2-2 in League #217 on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Valpovka in Valpovo.