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NAŠK Našice vs Valpovka — League #217 2026

NAŠK Našice
NAŠK Našice
FT
2 – 1
Valpovka
Valpovka
9/30/2023League #217League #217 · East - 7Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

NAŠK Našice31%
×Draw23%
Valpovka46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NAŠK Našice
1.46
Valpovka
1.81

Valpovka creates 24% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 3 away

creates per match

NAŠK Našice
1.25
Valpovka
2.33

allows per match

NAŠK Našice
1.29
Valpovka
1.67

finishing

NAŠK Našice+0.00on par
Valpovka+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAŠK Našice ↓

Valpovka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

NAŠK Našice or draw
54%
NAŠK Našice or Valpovka
77%
Draw or Valpovka
69%

Winning margin

NAŠK Našice wins by 2+
14%
Valpovka wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

NAŠK Našice 1+ goals
77%
NAŠK Našice 2+ goals
43%
NAŠK Našice 3+ goals
18%
Valpovka 1+ goals
84%
Valpovka 2+ goals
54%
Valpovka 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

NAŠK Našice (draw refunded)
41%
Valpovka (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAŠK Našice at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

Valpovka away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAŠK Našice attack 1.25 + Valpovka defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Valpovka attack 2.33 + NAŠK Našice defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

NAŠK Našice scores more
31%
level
23%
Valpovka scores more
46%

Valpovka at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Valpovka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NAŠK Našice vs Valpovka

NAŠK Našice beat Valpovka 2-1 in League #217 on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Našice.