Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Valmiera II vs Smiltene — 1. Liga 2026

Valmiera II
Valmiera II
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Smiltene
Smiltene
9/10/20221. Liga1. Liga · Round 18Vidzemes Olimpiskais centrs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Valmiera II65%
×Draw18%
Smiltene17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valmiera II
2.50
Smiltene
1.20

Valmiera II creates 108% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 88 away

creates per match

Valmiera II
2.36
Smiltene
1.31

allows per match

Valmiera II
1.08
Smiltene
2.65

finishing

Valmiera II+0.00on par
Smiltene+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valmiera II ↓

Smiltene →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Valmiera II or draw
83%
Valmiera II or Smiltene
82%
Draw or Smiltene
35%

Winning margin

Valmiera II wins by 2+
43%
Smiltene wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Valmiera II 1+ goals
92%
Valmiera II 2+ goals
71%
Valmiera II 3+ goals
45%
Smiltene 1+ goals
70%
Smiltene 2+ goals
34%
Smiltene 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Valmiera II (draw refunded)
80%
Smiltene (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valmiera II at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.08 · 39 matches

Smiltene away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.65 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valmiera II attack 2.36 + Smiltene defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.50

Smiltene attack 1.31 + Valmiera II defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Valmiera II scores more
65%
level
18%
Smiltene scores more
17%

Valmiera II at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Valmiera II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga: Valmiera II 5–0 Smiltene

Valmiera II beat Smiltene 5-0 in 1. Liga on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Vidzemes Olimpiskais centrs in Valmiera.