Smiltene 2–2 Valmiera II: Result & Stats | 1. Liga

Smiltene

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Valmiera II

11/4/2023

1. Liga · Round 25Tepera stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Smiltene33%

×Draw21%

Valmiera II46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SmilteneExpected goals in this matchValmiera II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

2.12

Smiltene

1.78

Valmiera II

2.12

Valmiera II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 39 away

1.67

creates per match

1.77

2.46

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Smiltene

1.67

Valmiera II

1.77

allows per match

Smiltene

2.46

Valmiera II

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Smiltene+0.00on par

Valmiera II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Smiltene ↓

Valmiera II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Smiltene or draw

54%

Smiltene or Valmiera II

79%

Draw or Valmiera II

67%

Winning margin

Smiltene wins by 2+

17%

Valmiera II wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Smiltene 1+ goals

83%

Smiltene 2+ goals

53%

Smiltene 3+ goals

26%

Valmiera II 1+ goals

88%

Valmiera II 2+ goals

62%

Valmiera II 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Smiltene (draw refunded)

42%

Valmiera II (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Smiltene at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.46 · 82 matches

Valmiera II away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.90 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Smiltene attack 1.67 + Valmiera II defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.78

Valmiera II attack 1.77 + Smiltene defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Smiltene scores more

33%

level

21%

Valmiera II scores more

46%

Valmiera II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Valmiera II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff