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Valmiera / BSS vs Tre Penne — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Valmiera / BSS
Valmiera / BSS
FT
7 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Tre Penne
Tre Penne
8/1/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundJ. Daliņa stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Valmiera / BSS88%
×Draw8%
Tre Penne4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valmiera / BSS
3.50
Tre Penne
0.63

Valmiera / BSS creates 456% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Valmiera / BSS
2.25
Tre Penne
0.25

allows per match

Valmiera / BSS
1.00
Tre Penne
4.75

finishing

Valmiera / BSS+0.00on par
Tre Penne+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valmiera / BSS ↓

Tre Penne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–17%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (12%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Valmiera / BSS or draw
96%
Valmiera / BSS or Tre Penne
92%
Draw or Tre Penne
12%

Winning margin

Valmiera / BSS wins by 2+
73%
Tre Penne wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Valmiera / BSS 1+ goals
97%
Valmiera / BSS 2+ goals
85%
Valmiera / BSS 3+ goals
66%
Tre Penne 1+ goals
47%
Tre Penne 2+ goals
13%
Tre Penne 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Valmiera / BSS (draw refunded)
96%
Tre Penne (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valmiera / BSS at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Tre Penne away — creates 0.25, concedes 4.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valmiera / BSS attack 2.25 + Tre Penne defence 4.75 → ÷2 → 3.50

Tre Penne attack 0.25 + Valmiera / BSS defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Valmiera / BSS scores more
88%
level
8%
Tre Penne scores more
4%

Valmiera / BSS at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Valmiera / BSS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Valmiera / BSS 7–0 Tre Penne

Valmiera / BSS beat Tre Penne 7-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 1, 2023.

The match was played at J. Daliņa stadions in Valmierā.