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Tre Penne vs Valmiera / BSS — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Tre Penne
Tre Penne
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Valmiera / BSS
Valmiera / BSS
7/25/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundStadio Olimpico di Serravalle

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tre Penne17%
×Draw22%
Valmiera / BSS61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tre Penne
0.88
Valmiera / BSS
1.88

Valmiera / BSS creates 114% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Tre Penne
0.25
Valmiera / BSS
1.25

allows per match

Tre Penne
2.50
Valmiera / BSS
1.50

finishing

Tre Penne+0.00on par
Valmiera / BSS+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tre Penne ↓

Valmiera / BSS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–112%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tre Penne or draw
39%
Tre Penne or Valmiera / BSS
78%
Draw or Valmiera / BSS
83%

Winning margin

Tre Penne wins by 2+
5%
Valmiera / BSS wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Tre Penne 1+ goals
59%
Tre Penne 2+ goals
22%
Tre Penne 3+ goals
6%
Valmiera / BSS 1+ goals
85%
Valmiera / BSS 2+ goals
56%
Valmiera / BSS 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Tre Penne (draw refunded)
22%
Valmiera / BSS (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tre Penne at home — creates 0.25, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Valmiera / BSS away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tre Penne attack 0.25 + Valmiera / BSS defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.88

Valmiera / BSS attack 1.25 + Tre Penne defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Tre Penne scores more
17%
level
22%
Valmiera / BSS scores more
61%

Valmiera / BSS at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Valmiera / BSS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tre Penne vs Valmiera / BSS

Valmiera / BSS beat Tre Penne 3-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on July 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico di Serravalle in Serravalle.