Valmiera / BSS 3–4 Rīgas FS: Result & Stats | Cup

Valmiera / BSS

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Rīgas FS

8/17/2024

Cup · Quarter-finalsJ. Daliņa stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Valmiera / BSS45%

×Draw21%

Rīgas FS34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Valmiera / BSSExpected goals in this matchRīgas FS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

1.83

Valmiera / BSS

2.11

Rīgas FS

1.83

Valmiera / BSS creates 15% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

3.44

creates per match

2.78

0.89

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Valmiera / BSS

3.44

Rīgas FS

2.78

allows per match

Valmiera / BSS

0.89

Rīgas FS

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valmiera / BSS+0.00on par

Rīgas FS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valmiera / BSS ↓

Rīgas FS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Valmiera / BSS or draw

66%

Valmiera / BSS or Rīgas FS

79%

Draw or Rīgas FS

55%

Winning margin

Valmiera / BSS wins by 2+

26%

Rīgas FS wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Valmiera / BSS 1+ goals

88%

Valmiera / BSS 2+ goals

62%

Valmiera / BSS 3+ goals

35%

Rīgas FS 1+ goals

84%

Rīgas FS 2+ goals

54%

Rīgas FS 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Valmiera / BSS (draw refunded)

57%

Rīgas FS (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valmiera / BSS at home — creates 3.44, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Rīgas FS away — creates 2.78, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valmiera / BSS attack 3.44 + Rīgas FS defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 2.11

Rīgas FS attack 2.78 + Valmiera / BSS defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Valmiera / BSS scores more

45%

level

21%

Rīgas FS scores more

34%

Valmiera / BSS at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Valmiera / BSS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff