Valmiera / BSS 2–0 Rīgas FS: Result & Stats

Valmiera / BSS

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rīgas FS

5/5/2024

Virsliga · Round 11Vidzemes Olimpiskais centrs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Valmiera / BSS35%

×Draw24%

Rīgas FS41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Valmiera / BSSExpected goals in this matchRīgas FS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.58

Valmiera / BSS

1.45

Rīgas FS

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 117 away

1.97

creates per match

2.26

0.90

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Valmiera / BSS

1.97

Rīgas FS

2.26

allows per match

Valmiera / BSS

0.90

Rīgas FS

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valmiera / BSS+0.00on par

Rīgas FS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valmiera / BSS ↓

Rīgas FS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Valmiera / BSS or draw

59%

Valmiera / BSS or Rīgas FS

76%

Draw or Rīgas FS

65%

Winning margin

Valmiera / BSS wins by 2+

16%

Rīgas FS wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Valmiera / BSS 1+ goals

77%

Valmiera / BSS 2+ goals

42%

Valmiera / BSS 3+ goals

18%

Rīgas FS 1+ goals

79%

Rīgas FS 2+ goals

47%

Rīgas FS 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Valmiera / BSS (draw refunded)

46%

Rīgas FS (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valmiera / BSS at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.90 · 87 matches

Rīgas FS away — creates 2.26, concedes 0.92 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valmiera / BSS attack 1.97 + Rīgas FS defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.45

Rīgas FS attack 2.26 + Valmiera / BSS defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Valmiera / BSS scores more

35%

level

24%

Rīgas FS scores more

41%

Rīgas FS at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rīgas FS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff