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Valmiera / BSS vs Riga — Virsliga 2026

Valmiera / BSS
Valmiera / BSS
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Riga
Riga
7/2/2024VirsligaVirsliga · Round 21J. Daliņa stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Valmiera / BSS33%
×Draw24%
Riga43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valmiera / BSS
1.36
Riga
1.58

Riga creates 16% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 116 away

creates per match

Valmiera / BSS
1.97
Riga
2.27

allows per match

Valmiera / BSS
0.90
Riga
0.75

finishing

Valmiera / BSS+0.00on par
Riga+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valmiera / BSS ↓

Riga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Valmiera / BSS or draw
57%
Valmiera / BSS or Riga
76%
Draw or Riga
67%

Winning margin

Valmiera / BSS wins by 2+
15%
Riga wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Valmiera / BSS 1+ goals
74%
Valmiera / BSS 2+ goals
39%
Valmiera / BSS 3+ goals
16%
Riga 1+ goals
79%
Riga 2+ goals
47%
Riga 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Valmiera / BSS (draw refunded)
44%
Riga (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valmiera / BSS at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.90 · 87 matches

Riga away — creates 2.27, concedes 0.75 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valmiera / BSS attack 1.97 + Riga defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.36

Riga attack 2.27 + Valmiera / BSS defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Valmiera / BSS scores more
33%
level
24%
Riga scores more
43%

Riga at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Riga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Valmiera / BSS vs Riga

Valmiera / BSS and Riga drew 2-2 in Virsliga on July 2, 2024.

The match was played at J. Daliņa stadions in Valmierā.