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Riga vs Valmiera / BSS — Virsliga 2026

Riga
Riga
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Valmiera / BSS
Valmiera / BSS
9/19/2024VirsligaVirsliga · Round 30Stadions Skonto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Riga51%
×Draw23%
Valmiera / BSS25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Riga
1.78
Valmiera / BSS
1.18

Riga creates 51% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 87 away

creates per match

Riga
2.41
Valmiera / BSS
1.71

allows per match

Riga
0.64
Valmiera / BSS
1.15

finishing

Riga+0.00on par
Valmiera / BSS+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Riga ↓

Valmiera / BSS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Riga or draw
75%
Riga or Valmiera / BSS
77%
Draw or Valmiera / BSS
49%

Winning margin

Riga wins by 2+
28%
Valmiera / BSS wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Riga 1+ goals
83%
Riga 2+ goals
53%
Riga 3+ goals
26%
Valmiera / BSS 1+ goals
69%
Valmiera / BSS 2+ goals
33%
Valmiera / BSS 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Riga (draw refunded)
67%
Valmiera / BSS (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Riga at home — creates 2.41, concedes 0.64 · 116 matches

Valmiera / BSS away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.15 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Riga attack 2.41 + Valmiera / BSS defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.78

Valmiera / BSS attack 1.71 + Riga defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Riga scores more
51%
level
23%
Valmiera / BSS scores more
25%

Riga at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Riga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Riga vs Valmiera / BSS

Riga beat Valmiera / BSS 1-0 in Virsliga on September 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadions Skonto in Riga.