Valmiera / BSS 2–0 Jelgava: Result & Stats

Valmiera / BSS

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jelgava

K. Kārkliņš 63'

T. Arokodare 53' (pen)

8/23/2020

Virsliga · Round 16Vidzemes Olimpiskais centrs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Valmiera / BSS60%

×Draw23%

Jelgava18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Valmiera / BSSExpected goals in this matchJelgava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.86

Valmiera / BSS

1.81

Jelgava

0.86

Valmiera / BSS creates 110% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 29 away

1.97

creates per match

0.83

0.90

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Valmiera / BSS

1.97

Jelgava

0.83

allows per match

Valmiera / BSS

0.90

Jelgava

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valmiera / BSS+0.00on par

Jelgava+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valmiera / BSS ↓

Jelgava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Valmiera / BSS or draw

82%

Valmiera / BSS or Jelgava

77%

Draw or Jelgava

40%

Winning margin

Valmiera / BSS wins by 2+

34%

Jelgava wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Valmiera / BSS 1+ goals

84%

Valmiera / BSS 2+ goals

54%

Valmiera / BSS 3+ goals

27%

Jelgava 1+ goals

58%

Jelgava 2+ goals

21%

Jelgava 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Valmiera / BSS (draw refunded)

77%

Jelgava (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valmiera / BSS at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.90 · 87 matches

Jelgava away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.66 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valmiera / BSS attack 1.97 + Jelgava defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.81

Jelgava attack 0.83 + Valmiera / BSS defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Valmiera / BSS scores more

60%

level

23%

Jelgava scores more

18%

Valmiera / BSS at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Valmiera / BSS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

D. Hvoinickis

35'

O. Badmus

46'

L. Silagadze← M. Zaddem

53'

T. ArokodarePenalty

58'

R. Korzāns← A. Radchenko

61'

V. Diage

63'

K. Kārkliņš

74'

D. Gueye← Jorge Teixeira

74'

D. Indrāns← Y. Sow

80'

D. Balodis← E. Punculs

80'

P. Fall← M. Musolitin

85'

D. Skopenko← T. Arokodare

87'

D. Indrans

Valmiera

Jelgava

35

4

22

5

50

80

19

23

11

▼

Radchenko

20

▼

9

31

16

22

6

⚽

Kārkliņš

8

▼

Musolitin

10

Jaunzems

80

Diagne

29

▼

Zaddem

9

▼

Punculs

77

▼

Teixeira

99

⚽

▼

Arokodare

Manager: T. Pertia

46'▲L. Silagadze←▼M. Zaddem

74'▲D. Gueye←▼Jorge Teixeira

80'▲D. Balodis←▼E. Punculs

80'▲P. Fall←▼M. Musolitin

85'▲D. Skopenko←▼T. Arokodare

Valmiera / BSS substitutes

14Silagadze19Gueye2Balodis17Fall33Skopenko5Liepa65Soloha

Manager: O. Kubarev

58'▲R. Korzāns←▼A. Radchenko

74'▲D. Indrāns←▼Y. Sow

Jelgava substitutes

37Korzāns10Indrāns16Grigorjevs25Grinbergs29Saveļjevs

Virsliga: Valmiera / BSS 2–0 Jelgava

Valmiera / BSS beat Jelgava 2-0 in Virsliga on August 23, 2020.

Goals: T. Arokodare (53' pen), K. Kārkliņš (63').

The match was played at Vidzemes Olimpiskais centrs in Valmiera.

Valmiera / BSS vs Jelgava — Virsliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Virsliga: Valmiera / BSS 2–0 Jelgava