Jelgava 2–2 Valmiera / BSS: Result & Stats

Jelgava

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Valmiera / BSS

A. Grjaznovs 80', 38' (pen)

D. Gueye 79'

L. Silagadze 70'

11/20/2020

Virsliga · Round 25Zemgales Olimpiskā centra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Jelgava23%

×Draw24%

Valmiera / BSS53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JelgavaExpected goals in this matchValmiera / BSS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.74

Jelgava

1.06

Valmiera / BSS

1.74

Valmiera / BSS creates 64% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 87 away

0.97

creates per match

1.71

1.77

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Jelgava

0.97

Valmiera / BSS

1.71

allows per match

Jelgava

1.77

Valmiera / BSS

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jelgava+0.00on par

Valmiera / BSS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jelgava ↓

Valmiera / BSS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Jelgava or draw

47%

Jelgava or Valmiera / BSS

76%

Draw or Valmiera / BSS

77%

Winning margin

Jelgava wins by 2+

9%

Valmiera / BSS wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Jelgava 1+ goals

65%

Jelgava 2+ goals

29%

Jelgava 3+ goals

9%

Valmiera / BSS 1+ goals

82%

Valmiera / BSS 2+ goals

52%

Valmiera / BSS 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Jelgava (draw refunded)

30%

Valmiera / BSS (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jelgava at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

Valmiera / BSS away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.15 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jelgava attack 0.97 + Valmiera / BSS defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.06

Valmiera / BSS attack 1.71 + Jelgava defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Jelgava scores more

23%

level

24%

Valmiera / BSS scores more

53%

Valmiera / BSS at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Valmiera / BSS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

M. Kruglauzs

22'

A. Krusatins

27'

K. Karklins

38'

A. GrjaznovsPenalty

42'

Jorge Teixeira← J. Celestine

46'

L. Silagadze← M. Diagne

56'

61'

70'

71'

79'

80'

84'

84'

Jelgava

Valmiera

31

Eleferenk

12

Gadrani

16

▼

96

17

6

10

80

▼

Diagne

9

Punculs

19

⚽

11

16

6

4

8

19

37

97

⚽2

23

33

87

9

Manager: O. Kubarev

Jelgava substitutes

5Minkevičs25Grinbergs29Saveļjevs30Štrauss35Kurakins99Pivarovičs

Manager: T. Pertia

42'▲Jorge Teixeira←▼J. Celestine

46'▲L. Silagadze←▼M. Diagne

Valmiera / BSS substitutes

77Teixeira14Silagadze21Zeņģis22Badmus29Zaddem88Stepanovs97Zommers

Virsliga: Jelgava 2–2 Valmiera / BSS

Jelgava and Valmiera / BSS drew 2-2 in Virsliga on November 20, 2020.

Goals: A. Grjaznovs (38' pen, 80'), L. Silagadze (70'), D. Gueye (79').

The match was played at Zemgales Olimpiskā centra in Jelgava.

Jelgava vs Valmiera / BSS — Virsliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Virsliga: Jelgava 2–2 Valmiera / BSS