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Valmiera / BSS vs FS Jelgava — Virsliga 2026

Valmiera / BSS
Valmiera / BSS
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
FS Jelgava
FS Jelgava
10/26/2024VirsligaVirsliga · Round 34J. Daliņa stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Valmiera / BSS63%
×Draw21%
FS Jelgava16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valmiera / BSS
2.00
FS Jelgava
0.91

Valmiera / BSS creates 120% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 65 away

creates per match

Valmiera / BSS
1.97
FS Jelgava
0.91

allows per match

Valmiera / BSS
0.90
FS Jelgava
2.02

finishing

Valmiera / BSS+0.00on par
FS Jelgava+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valmiera / BSS ↓

FS Jelgava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Valmiera / BSS or draw
84%
Valmiera / BSS or FS Jelgava
79%
Draw or FS Jelgava
37%

Winning margin

Valmiera / BSS wins by 2+
38%
FS Jelgava wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Valmiera / BSS 1+ goals
86%
Valmiera / BSS 2+ goals
59%
Valmiera / BSS 3+ goals
32%
FS Jelgava 1+ goals
60%
FS Jelgava 2+ goals
23%
FS Jelgava 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Valmiera / BSS (draw refunded)
79%
FS Jelgava (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valmiera / BSS at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.90 · 87 matches

FS Jelgava away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.02 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valmiera / BSS attack 1.97 + FS Jelgava defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.00

FS Jelgava attack 0.91 + Valmiera / BSS defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Valmiera / BSS scores more
63%
level
21%
FS Jelgava scores more
16%

Valmiera / BSS at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Valmiera / BSS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Virsliga: Valmiera / BSS 3–2 FS Jelgava

Valmiera / BSS beat FS Jelgava 3-2 in Virsliga on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at J. Daliņa stadions in Valmierā.