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FS Jelgava vs Valmiera / BSS — Virsliga 2026

FS Jelgava
FS Jelgava
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Valmiera / BSS
Valmiera / BSS
11/5/2023VirsligaVirsliga · Round 35Zemgales Olimpiskā centra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

FS Jelgava28%
×Draw25%
Valmiera / BSS47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FS Jelgava
1.15
Valmiera / BSS
1.56

Valmiera / BSS creates 36% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 87 away

creates per match

FS Jelgava
1.14
Valmiera / BSS
1.71

allows per match

FS Jelgava
1.42
Valmiera / BSS
1.15

finishing

FS Jelgava+0.00on par
Valmiera / BSS+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FS Jelgava ↓

Valmiera / BSS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FS Jelgava or draw
53%
FS Jelgava or Valmiera / BSS
75%
Draw or Valmiera / BSS
72%

Winning margin

FS Jelgava wins by 2+
11%
Valmiera / BSS wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

FS Jelgava 1+ goals
68%
FS Jelgava 2+ goals
32%
FS Jelgava 3+ goals
11%
Valmiera / BSS 1+ goals
79%
Valmiera / BSS 2+ goals
46%
Valmiera / BSS 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

FS Jelgava (draw refunded)
38%
Valmiera / BSS (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FS Jelgava at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.42 · 65 matches

Valmiera / BSS away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.15 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FS Jelgava attack 1.14 + Valmiera / BSS defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Valmiera / BSS attack 1.71 + FS Jelgava defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FS Jelgava scores more
28%
level
25%
Valmiera / BSS scores more
47%

Valmiera / BSS at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Valmiera / BSS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Virsliga: FS Jelgava 0–1 Valmiera / BSS

Valmiera / BSS beat FS Jelgava 1-0 in Virsliga on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Zemgales Olimpiskā centra in Jelgava.