Valls 2–0 Sants: Result & Stats

Valls

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sants

Jordi Prades 89', 44'

5/23/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 2nd Phase - 7Estadi Municipal del Vilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Valls42%

×Draw29%

Sants29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VallsExpected goals in this matchSants

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.97

Valls

1.23

Sants

0.97

Valls creates 27% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

0.73

creates per match

0.82

1.13

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Valls

0.73

Sants

0.82

allows per match

Valls

1.13

Sants

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valls+0.00on par

Sants+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valls ↓

Sants →

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Valls or draw

71%

Valls or Sants

71%

Draw or Sants

58%

Winning margin

Valls wins by 2+

19%

Sants wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Valls 1+ goals

71%

Valls 2+ goals

35%

Valls 3+ goals

13%

Sants 1+ goals

62%

Sants 2+ goals

25%

Sants 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Valls (draw refunded)

59%

Sants (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Valls at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Sants away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.73 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Valls attack 0.73 + Sants defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sants attack 0.82 + Valls defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Valls scores more

42%

level

29%

Sants scores more

29%

Valls at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Valls will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

Jordi Prades

62'

Thommy Bejarano← Guillermo Torres

70'

Gerard Moya← Xavi Fabra

70'

Gerard Batista← Sergi Masqué

74'

Domingo García← Abodlai Bandeh

78'

Aleix Ruiz← Sergi Gomez

88'

Pau Celma← Rubi

88'

Juli Berenguer← Miguel Martínez

89'

Jordi Prades

Valls

Sants

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Manager: Joan Pallarés

70'▲Gerard Moya←▼Xavi Fabra

70'▲Gerard Batista←▼Sergi Masqué

78'▲Aleix Ruiz←▼Sergi Gomez

Valls substitutes

MoyaBatistaRuiz

Manager: Tito Lossio

62'▲Thommy Bejarano←▼Guillermo Torres

74'▲Domingo García←▼Abodlai Bandeh

88'▲Pau Celma←▼Rubi

88'▲Juli Berenguer←▼Miguel Martínez

Sants substitutes

BejaranoGarcíaCelmaBerenguer

Match Recap: Valls vs Sants

Valls beat Sants 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on May 23, 2021.

Goals: Jordi Prades (44', 89').

The match was played at Estadi Municipal del Vilar in Valls.

Valls vs Sants — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Valls vs Sants