Sants 0–0 Valls: Result & Stats

Sants

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Valls

4/18/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 2nd Phase - 2Camp de Futbol Energia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sants44%

×Draw29%

Valls27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SantsExpected goals in this matchValls

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.90

Sants

1.23

Valls

0.90

Sants creates 37% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

1.33

creates per match

0.73

1.07

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Sants

1.33

Valls

0.73

allows per match

Sants

1.07

Valls

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sants+0.00on par

Valls+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sants ↓

Valls →

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Sants or draw

73%

Sants or Valls

71%

Draw or Valls

56%

Winning margin

Sants wins by 2+

19%

Valls wins by 2+

Team goals

Sants 1+ goals

71%

Sants 2+ goals

35%

Sants 3+ goals

13%

Valls 1+ goals

59%

Valls 2+ goals

23%

Valls 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Sants (draw refunded)

62%

Valls (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sants at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 45 matches

Valls away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sants attack 1.33 + Valls defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Valls attack 0.73 + Sants defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sants scores more

44%

level

29%

Valls scores more

27%

Sants at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sants will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

66'

Xavi Fabra← Albert Plana

66'

Cesc Martínez← Gerard Moya

66'

Oscar Pérez← Sergi Gomez

69'

Thommy Bejarano← Domingo García

69'

Pau Celma← F. Osorio

74'

C. Diagne← Ramón Miranda

83'

Cristian Mulero← Miguel Martínez

84'

Marc Guasch← Arnau Miro

Sants

Valls

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Tito Lossio

69'▲Thommy Bejarano←▼Domingo García

69'▲Pau Celma←▼F. Osorio

83'▲Cristian Mulero←▼Miguel Martínez

Sants substitutes

BejaranoCelmaMulero

Manager: Joan Pallarés

66'▲Xavi Fabra←▼Albert Plana

66'▲Cesc Martínez←▼Gerard Moya

66'▲Oscar Pérez←▼Sergi Gomez

74'▲C. Diagne←▼Ramón Miranda

84'▲Marc Guasch←▼Arnau Miro

Valls substitutes

FabraMartínezPérezDiagneGuasch

Sants 0 – 0 Valls

Sants and Valls drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on April 18, 2021.

The match was played at Camp de Futbol Energia in Barcelona.

Sants vs Valls — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Sants 0 – 0 Valls