Valls 1–1 Peralada: Result & Stats

Valls

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Peralada

Cesc Martínez 89'

Ritxi 25'

4/25/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 2nd Phase - 3Estadi Municipal del Vilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Valls30%

×Draw31%

Peralada39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VallsExpected goals in this matchPeralada

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

1.07

Valls

0.89

Peralada

1.07

Peralada creates 20% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 110 away

0.73

creates per match

1.01

1.13

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Valls

0.73

Peralada

1.01

allows per match

Valls

1.13

Peralada

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valls+0.00on par

Peralada+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valls ↓

Peralada →

0–014%

0–115%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Valls or draw

61%

Valls or Peralada

69%

Draw or Peralada

70%

Winning margin

Valls wins by 2+

10%

Peralada wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Valls 1+ goals

59%

Valls 2+ goals

22%

Valls 3+ goals

Peralada 1+ goals

66%

Peralada 2+ goals

29%

Peralada 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Valls (draw refunded)

43%

Peralada (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Valls at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Peralada away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.04 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Valls attack 0.73 + Peralada defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.89

Peralada attack 1.01 + Valls defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Valls scores more

30%

level

31%

Peralada scores more

39%

Peralada at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Peralada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

Ritxi

46'

Xavi Fabra← Sergi Masqué

46'

Sergio Giralte← Albert Plana

58'

Adriá Casanova← Hwang Seom-Gyu

60'

Cesc Martínez← Sergi Gomez

60'

Sergi Gestí← Ramón Miranda

73'

Gerard Moya← C. Diagne

79'

Biel Font← Roger Cunill

79'

Dalmau← Simón Colina

87'

M. Quadri← Ritxi

89'

Cesc Martínez

Valls

Peralada

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Joan Pallarés

46'▲Xavi Fabra←▼Sergi Masqué

46'▲Sergio Giralte←▼Albert Plana

60'▲Cesc Martínez←▼Sergi Gomez

60'▲Sergi Gestí←▼Ramón Miranda

73'▲Gerard Moya←▼C. Diagne

Valls substitutes

FabraGiralteMartínezGestíMoya

Manager: Albert Carbó

58'▲Adriá Casanova←▼Hwang Seom-Gyu

79'▲Biel Font←▼Roger Cunill

79'▲Dalmau←▼Simón Colina

87'▲M. Quadri←▼Ritxi

Peralada substitutes

CasanovaFontDalmauQuadri

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Valls 1–1 Peralada

Valls and Peralada drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on April 25, 2021.

Goals: Ritxi (25'), Cesc Martínez (89').

The match was played at Estadi Municipal del Vilar in Valls.

Valls vs Peralada — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Valls 1–1 Peralada