Peralada 2–1 Valls: Result & Stats

Peralada

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Valls

Arnau Ortiz 4'

Adriá Casanova 1'

Sergi Gomez 37' (pen)

5/30/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 2nd Phase - 8Estadio Municipal de Peralada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Peralada46%

×Draw29%

Valls25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeraladaExpected goals in this matchValls

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.86

Peralada

1.28

Valls

0.86

Peralada creates 49% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 15 away

1.44

creates per match

0.73

1.00

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Peralada

1.44

Valls

0.73

allows per match

Peralada

1.00

Valls

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peralada+0.00on par

Valls+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peralada ↓

Valls →

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Peralada or draw

75%

Peralada or Valls

71%

Draw or Valls

54%

Winning margin

Peralada wins by 2+

21%

Valls wins by 2+

Team goals

Peralada 1+ goals

72%

Peralada 2+ goals

37%

Peralada 3+ goals

14%

Valls 1+ goals

58%

Valls 2+ goals

21%

Valls 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Peralada (draw refunded)

65%

Valls (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Peralada at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.00 · 111 matches

Valls away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Peralada attack 1.44 + Valls defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.28

Valls attack 0.73 + Peralada defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Peralada scores more

46%

level

29%

Valls scores more

25%

Peralada at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Peralada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Adriá Casanova

Arnau Ortiz

37'

Sergi GomezPenalty

60'

Josu Currais← Hwang Seom-Gyu

69'

Ramón Miranda← Jordi Prades

69'

Cesc Martínez← Gerard Moya

74'

Xavi Fabra← Eric Martí

75'

Salim Diaby← Micaló

84'

M. Quadri← Adriá Casanova

84'

Papa← Ritxi

85'

Sergi Gestí← Albert Plana

Peralada

Valls

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Casanova

Manager: Albert Carbó

60'▲Josu Currais←▼Hwang Seom-Gyu

75'▲Salim Diaby←▼Micaló

84'▲M. Quadri←▼Adriá Casanova

84'▲Papa←▼Ritxi

Peralada substitutes

CurraisDiabyQuadriPapa

Manager: Joan Pallarés

69'▲Ramón Miranda←▼Jordi Prades

69'▲Cesc Martínez←▼Gerard Moya

74'▲Xavi Fabra←▼Eric Martí

85'▲Sergi Gestí←▼Albert Plana

Valls substitutes

MirandaMartínezFabraGestí