Valls 1–2 Igualada: Result & Stats

Valls

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Igualada

Joel Marigot 72'

S. Álvarez 89', 65' (pen)

11/1/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 3Estadi Municipal del Vilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Valls44%

×Draw27%

Igualada28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VallsExpected goals in this matchIgualada

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.03

Valls

1.36

Igualada

1.03

Valls creates 32% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 28 away

0.73

creates per match

0.93

1.13

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Valls

0.73

Igualada

0.93

allows per match

Valls

1.13

Igualada

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valls+0.00on par

Igualada+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valls ↓

Igualada →

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Valls or draw

72%

Valls or Igualada

73%

Draw or Igualada

56%

Winning margin

Valls wins by 2+

21%

Igualada wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Valls 1+ goals

74%

Valls 2+ goals

39%

Valls 3+ goals

16%

Igualada 1+ goals

64%

Igualada 2+ goals

28%

Igualada 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Valls (draw refunded)

61%

Igualada (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Valls at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Igualada away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.00 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Valls attack 0.73 + Igualada defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.36

Igualada attack 0.93 + Valls defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Valls scores more

44%

level

27%

Igualada scores more

28%

Valls at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Valls will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

Goran Ehsan← Óscar García

46'

S. Álvarez← F. Osorio

46'

Arnau Cuadras← Bernat Sansano

51'

Jordi Estivill← Riki

60'

Ramón Miranda← Sergi Gomez

60'

Cesc Martínez← Sergi Gestí

65'

S. ÁlvarezPenalty

72'

Joel Marigot

78'

Oscar Pérez← Joel Marigot

78'

Albert Plana← Sergi Masqué

83'

Genís Cargol← Joel Huertas

89'

David Baraldes← Eric González

89'

S. Álvarez

Valls

Igualada

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Marigot

Manager: Joan Pallarés

51'▲Jordi Estivill←▼Riki

60'▲Ramón Miranda←▼Sergi Gomez

60'▲Cesc Martínez←▼Sergi Gestí

78'▲Oscar Pérez←▼Joel Marigot

78'▲Albert Plana←▼Sergi Masqué

Valls substitutes

EstivillMirandaMartínezPérezPlana

Manager: Marc Cabestany

41'▲Goran Ehsan←▼Óscar García

46'▲S. Álvarez←▼F. Osorio

46'▲Arnau Cuadras←▼Bernat Sansano

83'▲Genís Cargol←▼Joel Huertas

89'▲David Baraldes←▼Eric González

Igualada substitutes

EhsanÁlvarezCuadrasCargolBaraldes

Match Recap: Valls vs Igualada

Igualada beat Valls 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on November 1, 2020.

Goals: S. Álvarez (65' pen, 89'), Joel Marigot (72').

The match was played at Estadi Municipal del Vilar in Valls.

Valls vs Igualada — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Valls vs Igualada