Igualada 0–1 Valls: Result & Stats

Igualada

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Valls

Gerard Moya 87'

1/31/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 14Estadi Cem Les Comes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Igualada35%

×Draw30%

Valls35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IgualadaExpected goals in this matchValls

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.05

Igualada

1.06

Valls

1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 15 away

1.00

creates per match

0.73

1.38

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Igualada

1.00

Valls

0.73

allows per match

Igualada

1.38

Valls

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Igualada+0.00on par

Valls+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Igualada ↓

Valls →

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Igualada or draw

65%

Igualada or Valls

70%

Draw or Valls

65%

Winning margin

Igualada wins by 2+

14%

Valls wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Igualada 1+ goals

65%

Igualada 2+ goals

29%

Igualada 3+ goals

Valls 1+ goals

65%

Valls 2+ goals

28%

Valls 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Igualada (draw refunded)

50%

Valls (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Igualada at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 29 matches

Valls away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Igualada attack 1.00 + Valls defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Valls attack 0.73 + Igualada defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 35%?"

Igualada scores more

35%

level

30%

Valls scores more

35%

Igualada at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Igualada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Martí Just← Carlos Contreras

46'

Aleix Ruiz← Arnau Miro

61'

Gerard Moya← C. Diagne

65'

Goran Ehsan← Joel Huertas

74'

Sergi Masqué← Jordi Prades

74'

Cesc Martínez← Xavi Fabra

74'

Albert Plana← Sergi Gomez

79'

Josep Marcé← Genís Cargol

87'

Gerard Moya

88'

Arnau Cuadras← Dani Casado

Igualada

Valls

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Carlos Lopez

46'▲Martí Just←▼Carlos Contreras

65'▲Goran Ehsan←▼Joel Huertas

79'▲Josep Marcé←▼Genís Cargol

88'▲Arnau Cuadras←▼Dani Casado

Igualada substitutes

JustEhsanMarcéCuadras

Manager: Joan Pallarés

46'▲Aleix Ruiz←▼Arnau Miro

61'▲Gerard Moya←▼C. Diagne

74'▲Sergi Masqué←▼Jordi Prades

74'▲Cesc Martínez←▼Xavi Fabra

74'▲Albert Plana←▼Sergi Gomez

Valls substitutes

RuizMoyaMasquéMartínezPlana