Valls 1–1 Castelldefels: Result & Stats

Valls

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Castelldefels

Xavi Fabra 9'

Aitor Serrano 87'

1/24/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 13Estadi Municipal del Vilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Valls32%

×Draw30%

Castelldefels38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VallsExpected goals in this matchCastelldefels

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.10

Valls

0.98

Castelldefels

1.10

Castelldefels creates 12% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 74 away

0.73

creates per match

1.07

1.13

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Valls

0.73

Castelldefels

1.07

allows per match

Valls

1.13

Castelldefels

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valls+0.00on par

Castelldefels+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valls ↓

Castelldefels →

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Valls or draw

62%

Valls or Castelldefels

70%

Draw or Castelldefels

68%

Winning margin

Valls wins by 2+

12%

Castelldefels wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Valls 1+ goals

62%

Valls 2+ goals

26%

Valls 3+ goals

Castelldefels 1+ goals

67%

Castelldefels 2+ goals

30%

Castelldefels 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Valls (draw refunded)

46%

Castelldefels (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Valls at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Castelldefels away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.24 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Valls attack 0.73 + Castelldefels defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.98

Castelldefels attack 1.07 + Valls defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Valls scores more

32%

level

30%

Castelldefels scores more

38%

Castelldefels at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Castelldefels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Xavi Fabra

55'

Marc Guasch← Xavi Fabra

60'

Guillem Hernández← Sergi Piña

60'

Pedro Bilbao← Josa

65'

Sergi Gomez← Sergi Gestí

65'

Albert Plana← Jordi Prades

72'

Kike Ramírez← Jonathan Ferreira

72'

Joan Vives← Fran Orellana

75'

Oscar Pérez← Sergi Masqué

75'

Sergio Giralte← Arnau Miro

84'

Joel Coch← Juanito

87'

Aitor Serrano

Valls

Castelldefels

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Joan Pallarés

55'▲Marc Guasch←▼Xavi Fabra

65'▲Sergi Gomez←▼Sergi Gestí

65'▲Albert Plana←▼Jordi Prades

75'▲Oscar Pérez←▼Sergi Masqué

75'▲Sergio Giralte←▼Arnau Miro

Valls substitutes

GuaschGomezPlanaPérezGiralte

Manager: Miki Carrillo

60'▲Guillem Hernández←▼Sergi Piña

60'▲Pedro Bilbao←▼Josa

72'▲Kike Ramírez←▼Jonathan Ferreira

72'▲Joan Vives←▼Fran Orellana

84'▲Joel Coch←▼Juanito

Castelldefels substitutes

HernándezBilbaoRamírezVivesCoch

Match Recap: Valls vs Castelldefels

Valls and Castelldefels drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on January 24, 2021.

Goals: Xavi Fabra (9'), Aitor Serrano (87').

The match was played at Estadi Municipal del Vilar in Valls.

Valls vs Castelldefels — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Valls vs Castelldefels