Castelldefels 2–1 Valls: Result & Stats

Castelldefels

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Valls

Joel Coch 48'

Sergio Navarro 12'

Sergi Gomez 62'

10/25/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 2Estadio Els Canyars

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Castelldefels37%

×Draw30%

Valls32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CastelldefelsExpected goals in this matchValls

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.98

Castelldefels

1.08

Valls

0.98

Castelldefels creates 10% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 15 away

1.03

creates per match

0.73

1.24

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Castelldefels

1.03

Valls

0.73

allows per match

Castelldefels

1.24

Valls

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Castelldefels+0.00on par

Valls+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castelldefels ↓

Valls →

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Castelldefels or draw

68%

Castelldefels or Valls

70%

Draw or Valls

63%

Winning margin

Castelldefels wins by 2+

15%

Valls wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Castelldefels 1+ goals

66%

Castelldefels 2+ goals

29%

Castelldefels 3+ goals

10%

Valls 1+ goals

62%

Valls 2+ goals

26%

Valls 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Castelldefels (draw refunded)

54%

Valls (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Castelldefels at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.24 · 75 matches

Valls away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Castelldefels attack 1.03 + Valls defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.08

Valls attack 0.73 + Castelldefels defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Castelldefels scores more

37%

level

30%

Valls scores more

32%

Castelldefels at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Castelldefels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Sergio Navarro

48'

Joel Coch

58'

Kevin Díaz← Aitor Serrano

59'

Arnau Cucurull← Óscar Torre

59'

Ramón Miranda← Xavi Fabra

59'

Gerard Batista← Cesc Martínez

62'

Sergi Gomez

75'

Josa← Jonathan Ferreira

75'

Fran Orellana← Sergio Navarro

76'

Jordi Estivill← Marc Guasch

76'

Joel Marigot← Aleix Ruiz

86'

Fabregat← Pedro Bilbao

Castelldefels

Valls

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Navarro

▼

Serrano

Manager: Miki Carrillo

58'▲Kevin Díaz←▼Aitor Serrano

75'▲Josa←▼Jonathan Ferreira

75'▲Fran Orellana←▼Sergio Navarro

86'▲Fabregat←▼Pedro Bilbao

Castelldefels substitutes

DíazJosaOrellanaFabregat

Manager: Joan Pallarés

59'▲Arnau Cucurull←▼Óscar Torre

59'▲Ramón Miranda←▼Xavi Fabra

59'▲Gerard Batista←▼Cesc Martínez

76'▲Jordi Estivill←▼Marc Guasch

76'▲Joel Marigot←▼Aleix Ruiz

Valls substitutes

CucurullMirandaBatistaEstivillMarigot