Valls 2–0 Banyoles: Result & Stats

Valls

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Banyoles

Jordi Prades 61'

Albert Plana 45'

6/6/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 2nd Phase - 9Estadi Municipal del Vilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Valls38%

×Draw31%

Banyoles31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VallsExpected goals in this matchBanyoles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

0.91

Valls

1.05

Banyoles

0.91

Valls creates 15% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

0.73

creates per match

0.70

1.13

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Valls

0.73

Banyoles

0.70

allows per match

Valls

1.13

Banyoles

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valls+0.00on par

Banyoles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valls ↓

Banyoles →

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Valls or draw

69%

Valls or Banyoles

69%

Draw or Banyoles

62%

Winning margin

Valls wins by 2+

15%

Banyoles wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Valls 1+ goals

65%

Valls 2+ goals

28%

Valls 3+ goals

Banyoles 1+ goals

60%

Banyoles 2+ goals

23%

Banyoles 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Valls (draw refunded)

55%

Banyoles (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Valls at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Banyoles away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Valls attack 0.73 + Banyoles defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.05

Banyoles attack 0.70 + Valls defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Valls scores more

38%

level

31%

Banyoles scores more

31%

Valls at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Valls will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

Albert Plana

46'

Abel Fàbregas← Ignasi Gómez

55'

Sergi Ferrusola← Jordi Sala

61'

Jordi Prades

63'

Ramón Miranda← Jordi Prades

67'

Eric Gispert← Monchi

67'

M. Jallow← Antoni Guell

71'

Gerard Moya← Sergi Gomez

71'

Sergi Masqué← Albert Plana

71'

Sergi Gestí← Cesc Martínez

77'

Mohamed← Bargalló

Valls

Banyoles

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Prades

▼

Gomez

Manager: Joan Pallarés

63'▲Ramón Miranda←▼Jordi Prades

71'▲Gerard Moya←▼Sergi Gomez

71'▲Sergi Masqué←▼Albert Plana

71'▲Sergi Gestí←▼Cesc Martínez

Valls substitutes

MirandaMoyaMasquéGestí

Manager: Kiku Parcerisas

46'▲Abel Fàbregas←▼Ignasi Gómez

55'▲Sergi Ferrusola←▼Jordi Sala

67'▲Eric Gispert←▼Monchi

67'▲M. Jallow←▼Antoni Guell

77'▲Mohamed←▼Bargalló

Banyoles substitutes

FàbregasFerrusolaGispertJallowMohamed