Banyoles 1–1 Valls: Result & Stats

Banyoles

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Valls

Eric Pimentel 31' (pen)

Torreblanca 71' (OG)

5/2/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 2nd Phase - 4Camp Nou de Banyoles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Banyoles43%

×Draw30%

Valls26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BanyolesExpected goals in this matchValls

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.83

Banyoles

1.15

Valls

0.83

Banyoles creates 39% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 15 away

1.18

creates per match

0.73

0.93

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Banyoles

1.18

Valls

0.73

allows per match

Banyoles

0.93

Valls

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Banyoles+0.00on par

Valls+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banyoles ↓

Valls →

0–014%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Banyoles or draw

74%

Banyoles or Valls

70%

Draw or Valls

57%

Winning margin

Banyoles wins by 2+

18%

Valls wins by 2+

Team goals

Banyoles 1+ goals

68%

Banyoles 2+ goals

32%

Banyoles 3+ goals

11%

Valls 1+ goals

56%

Valls 2+ goals

20%

Valls 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Banyoles (draw refunded)

62%

Valls (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Banyoles at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 28 matches

Valls away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Banyoles attack 1.18 + Valls defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Valls attack 0.73 + Banyoles defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Banyoles scores more

43%

level

30%

Valls scores more

26%

Banyoles at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Banyoles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

Eric PimentelPenalty

62'

Abel Fàbregas← Jordi Sala

65'

Ramón Miranda← Albert Plana

71'

TorreblancaOwn goal

75'

Jordi Prades← Marc Guasch

75'

Óscar Torre← Gerard Batista

77'

Eric Gispert← Antoni Guell

81'

Sergi Ferrusola← Marc Roura

85'

Eric Martí← Xavi Fabra

Banyoles

Valls

▼

▼

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Kiku Parcerisas

62'▲Abel Fàbregas←▼Jordi Sala

77'▲Eric Gispert←▼Antoni Guell

81'▲Sergi Ferrusola←▼Marc Roura

Banyoles substitutes

FàbregasGispertFerrusola

Manager: Joan Pallarés

65'▲Ramón Miranda←▼Albert Plana

75'▲Jordi Prades←▼Marc Guasch

75'▲Óscar Torre←▼Gerard Batista

85'▲Eric Martí←▼Xavi Fabra

Valls substitutes

MirandaPradesTorreMartí

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Banyoles 1–1 Valls

Banyoles and Valls drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on May 2, 2021.

Goals: Eric Pimentel (31' pen), Torreblanca (71' o.g.).

The match was played at Camp Nou de Banyoles in Banyoles.

Banyoles vs Valls — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Banyoles 1–1 Valls