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Valledupar vs Fortaleza FC — Primera B 2018

Valledupar
Valledupar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Fortaleza FC
Fortaleza FC
10/3/2021Primera BPrimera B · Clausura - 11Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Valledupar40%
×Draw29%
Fortaleza FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valledupar
1.19
Fortaleza FC
1.03

Valledupar creates 16% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 107 away

creates per match

Valledupar
1.25
Fortaleza FC
1.03

allows per match

Valledupar
1.03
Fortaleza FC
1.14

finishing

Valledupar+0.00on par
Fortaleza FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valledupar ↓

Fortaleza FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Valledupar or draw
68%
Valledupar or Fortaleza FC
71%
Draw or Fortaleza FC
60%

Winning margin

Valledupar wins by 2+
17%
Fortaleza FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Valledupar 1+ goals
70%
Valledupar 2+ goals
33%
Valledupar 3+ goals
12%
Fortaleza FC 1+ goals
64%
Fortaleza FC 2+ goals
28%
Fortaleza FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Valledupar (draw refunded)
56%
Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valledupar at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.03 · 89 matches

Fortaleza FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.14 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valledupar attack 1.25 + Fortaleza FC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Fortaleza FC attack 1.03 + Valledupar defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Valledupar scores more
40%
level
29%
Fortaleza FC scores more
32%

Valledupar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Valledupar vs Fortaleza FC

Valledupar and Fortaleza FC drew 1-1 in Primera B on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau in Valledupar.