Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Valledupar vs Chico — Primera B 2018

Valledupar
Valledupar
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chico
Chico
7/17/2022Primera BPrimera B · Clausura - 2Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Valledupar36%
×Draw31%
Chico33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valledupar
1.04
Chico
0.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 89 home / 57 away

creates per match

Valledupar
1.25
Chico
0.96

allows per match

Valledupar
1.03
Chico
0.84

finishing

Valledupar+0.00on par
Chico+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valledupar ↓

Chico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Valledupar or draw
67%
Valledupar or Chico
69%
Draw or Chico
64%

Winning margin

Valledupar wins by 2+
14%
Chico wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Valledupar 1+ goals
65%
Valledupar 2+ goals
28%
Valledupar 3+ goals
9%
Chico 1+ goals
63%
Chico 2+ goals
26%
Chico 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Valledupar (draw refunded)
52%
Chico (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valledupar at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.03 · 89 matches

Chico away — creates 0.96, concedes 0.84 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valledupar attack 1.25 + Chico defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.04

Chico attack 0.96 + Valledupar defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Valledupar scores more
36%
level
31%
Chico scores more
33%

Valledupar at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Valledupar vs Chico

Valledupar and Chico drew 0-0 in Primera B on July 17, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau in Valledupar.