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Chico vs Valledupar — Primera B 2018

Chico
Chico
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Valledupar
Valledupar
9/27/2021Primera BPrimera B · Clausura - 10Estadio de La Independencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Chico54%
×Draw27%
Valledupar19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chico
1.44
Valledupar
0.72

Chico creates 100% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 89 away

creates per match

Chico
1.42
Valledupar
0.87

allows per match

Chico
0.56
Valledupar
1.46

finishing

Chico+0.00on par
Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chico ↓

Valledupar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Chico or draw
81%
Chico or Valledupar
73%
Draw or Valledupar
46%

Winning margin

Chico wins by 2+
27%
Valledupar wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Chico 1+ goals
76%
Chico 2+ goals
42%
Chico 3+ goals
18%
Valledupar 1+ goals
51%
Valledupar 2+ goals
16%
Valledupar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Chico (draw refunded)
74%
Valledupar (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chico at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.56 · 57 matches

Valledupar away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.46 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chico attack 1.42 + Valledupar defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.44

Valledupar attack 0.87 + Chico defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Chico scores more
54%
level
27%
Valledupar scores more
19%

Chico at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Chico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chico vs Valledupar

Chico beat Valledupar 2-0 in Primera B on September 27, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio de La Independencia in Tunja.