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Valle Egüés vs Atlético Artajonés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Valle Egüés
Valle Egüés
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Artajonés
Atlético Artajonés
5/3/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 33Estadio Sarriguren

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Valle Egüés61%
×Draw22%
Atlético Artajonés17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valle Egüés
1.90
Atlético Artajonés
0.89

Valle Egüés creates 113% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 34 away

creates per match

Valle Egüés
1.76
Atlético Artajonés
0.68

allows per match

Valle Egüés
1.09
Atlético Artajonés
2.03

finishing

Valle Egüés+0.00on par
Atlético Artajonés+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valle Egüés ↓

Atlético Artajonés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Valle Egüés or draw
83%
Valle Egüés or Atlético Artajonés
78%
Draw or Atlético Artajonés
39%

Winning margin

Valle Egüés wins by 2+
36%
Atlético Artajonés wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Valle Egüés 1+ goals
85%
Valle Egüés 2+ goals
56%
Valle Egüés 3+ goals
29%
Atlético Artajonés 1+ goals
59%
Atlético Artajonés 2+ goals
22%
Atlético Artajonés 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Valle Egüés (draw refunded)
78%
Atlético Artajonés (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valle Egüés at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.09 · 91 matches

Atlético Artajonés away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.03 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valle Egüés attack 1.76 + Atlético Artajonés defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.90

Atlético Artajonés attack 0.68 + Valle Egüés defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Valle Egüés scores more
61%
level
22%
Atlético Artajonés scores more
17%

Valle Egüés at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Valle Egüés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Valle Egüés 2 – 1 Atlético Artajonés

Valle Egüés beat Atlético Artajonés 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on May 3, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Sarriguren in Sarriguren.