Atlético Artajonés 0–1 Valle Egüés: Result & Stats

Atlético Artajonés

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Valle Egüés

4/11/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 30Estadio La Alameda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Atlético Artajonés39%

×Draw26%

Valle Egüés36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético ArtajonésExpected goals in this matchValle Egüés

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.35

Atlético Artajonés

1.41

Valle Egüés

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 90 away

1.44

creates per match

1.27

1.44

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Atlético Artajonés

1.44

Valle Egüés

1.27

allows per match

Atlético Artajonés

1.44

Valle Egüés

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Artajonés+0.00on par

Valle Egüés+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Artajonés ↓

Valle Egüés →

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Atlético Artajonés or draw

64%

Atlético Artajonés or Valle Egüés

74%

Draw or Valle Egüés

61%

Winning margin

Atlético Artajonés wins by 2+

18%

Valle Egüés wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Atlético Artajonés 1+ goals

76%

Atlético Artajonés 2+ goals

41%

Atlético Artajonés 3+ goals

17%

Valle Egüés 1+ goals

74%

Valle Egüés 2+ goals

39%

Valle Egüés 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Atlético Artajonés (draw refunded)

52%

Valle Egüés (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Artajonés at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

Valle Egüés away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.38 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Artajonés attack 1.44 + Valle Egüés defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.41

Valle Egüés attack 1.27 + Atlético Artajonés defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atlético Artajonés scores more

39%

level

26%

Valle Egüés scores more

36%

Atlético Artajonés at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atlético Artajonés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Atlético Artajonés 0–1 Valle Egüés

Valle Egüés beat Atlético Artajonés 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on April 11, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio La Alameda in Artajona.

Atlético Artajonés vs Valle Egüés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Atlético Artajonés 0–1 Valle Egüés