Valladolid 3–1 Mirandes: Result & Stats

Valladolid

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Mirandes

S. Weissman 81', 28'

G. Plata 32'

Alejandro Marqués 88'

11/6/2021

Segunda División · Round 15Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Valladolid51%

×Draw25%

Mirandes24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValladolidExpected goals in this matchMirandes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.99

Valladolid

1.58

Mirandes

0.99

Valladolid creates 60% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.72

creates per match

1.05

0.92

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Valladolid

1.72

Mirandes

1.05

allows per match

Valladolid

0.92

Mirandes

1.44

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Valladolid-0.12scores less

Mirandes+0.08on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valladolid ↓

Mirandes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Valladolid or draw

76%

Valladolid or Mirandes

75%

Draw or Mirandes

49%

Winning margin

Valladolid wins by 2+

27%

Mirandes wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Valladolid 1+ goals

79%

Valladolid 2+ goals

47%

Valladolid 3+ goals

21%

Mirandes 1+ goals

63%

Mirandes 2+ goals

26%

Mirandes 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Valladolid (draw refunded)

68%

Mirandes (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valladolid at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.92 · 5 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valladolid attack 1.72 + Mirandes defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.58

Mirandes attack 1.05 + Valladolid defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Valladolid scores more

51%

level

25%

Mirandes scores more

24%

Valladolid at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Valladolid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

S. Weissman

Valladolid · F

8.3

Match Events

22'

28'

32'

39'

39'

Fede← Roque Mesa

45+1'

Alejandro López

46'

Iago López← B. Letić

54'

Iñigo Vicente← Álex López

54'

Brugui← Rodrigo Riquelme

63'

A. Tuhami← G. Plata

63'

Kike Pérez← Óscar Plano

68'

H. Hassan← Simón Moreno

71'

Anderson Arroyo

81'

S. Weissman↳ Sergio León

86'

Cristo González← S. Weissman

86'

Javier Sánchez← Kiko Olivas

86'

Alejandro Marqués← Sergio Camello

88'

Alejandro Marqués↳ Iñigo Vicente

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValladolidMirandes

Overview

53%Possession47%

20Total Shots12

0Corners2

12Fouls9

Shots

20Total Shots12

6On Target5

8Off Target6

6Blocked1

15Inside Box7

5Outside Box5

Passing

53%Possession47%

493Total Passes438

409Accurate Passes344

83%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls9

0Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0