Mirandes 2–1 Valladolid: Result & Stats

Mirandes

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Valladolid

C. Fernandez 84'

U. del Cura 45'

J. Latasa 23'

3/22/2026

Segunda División · Round 31Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Mirandes44%

×Draw27%

Valladolid29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirandesExpected goals in this matchValladolid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.08

Mirandes

1.40

Valladolid

1.08

Mirandes creates 30% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 67 away

1.42

creates per match

1.06

1.11

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Mirandes

1.42

Valladolid

1.06

allows per match

Mirandes

1.11

Valladolid

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mirandes+0.00on par

Valladolid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

Valladolid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw

71%

Mirandes or Valladolid

73%

Draw or Valladolid

56%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+

21%

Valladolid wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals

75%

Mirandes 2+ goals

41%

Mirandes 3+ goals

17%

Valladolid 1+ goals

66%

Valladolid 2+ goals

29%

Valladolid 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)

60%

Valladolid (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.11 · 150 matches

Valladolid away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.39 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.42 + Valladolid defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.40

Valladolid attack 1.06 + Mirandes defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mirandes scores more

44%

level

27%

Valladolid scores more

29%

Mirandes at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mirandes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

J. Hernandez

Mirandes · M

7.6

Match Events

23'

J. Latasa↳ Chuki

45'

U. del Cura↳ T. Tamarit

46'

Peter Federico← Marcos Andre

49'

C. Fernandez← U. del Cura

59'

Fernando Medrano

67'

P. Perez← S. El Jebari

67'

C. Clerc← I. Garriel

68'

A. Houary← D. Sia

78'

Javier HernándezPenalty cancelled

79'

Ramón Martínez

84'

C. Fernandez↳ R. Bauza

85'

C. Michelin← I. Alejo

85'

V. A. Meseguer Cavas← J. Ponceau

87'

V. Erlien← S. Canos

88'

M. Pascual← J. Hernandez

90+9'

Peter González

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MirandesValladolid

Overview

52%Possession48%

15Total Shots14

8Corners4

11Fouls16

Shots

15Total Shots14

7On Target4

4Off Target5

4Blocked5

10Inside Box7

5Outside Box7

Passing

52%Possession48%

339Total Passes311

263Accurate Passes236

78%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls16

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Mirandes vs Valladolid

Mirandes beat Valladolid 2-1 in Segunda División on March 22, 2026.

Goals: J. Latasa (23'), U. del Cura (45'), C. Fernandez (84').

Mirandes controlled possession (52%) and registered 15 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Anduva in Miranda de Ebro.

Mirandes vs Valladolid — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Mirandes vs Valladolid