Mirandes 0–1 Valladolid: Result & Stats

Mirandes

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Valladolid

Raúl Moro 3'

5/4/2024

Segunda División · Round 38Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Mirandes44%

×Draw27%

Valladolid29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirandesExpected goals in this matchValladolid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.08

Mirandes

1.40

Valladolid

1.08

Mirandes creates 30% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 67 away

1.42

creates per match

1.06

1.11

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Mirandes

1.42

Valladolid

1.06

allows per match

Mirandes

1.11

Valladolid

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mirandes+0.00on par

Valladolid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

Valladolid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw

71%

Mirandes or Valladolid

73%

Draw or Valladolid

56%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+

21%

Valladolid wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals

75%

Mirandes 2+ goals

41%

Mirandes 3+ goals

17%

Valladolid 1+ goals

66%

Valladolid 2+ goals

29%

Valladolid 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)

60%

Valladolid (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.11 · 150 matches

Valladolid away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.39 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.42 + Valladolid defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.40

Valladolid attack 1.06 + Mirandes defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mirandes scores more

44%

level

27%

Valladolid scores more

29%

Mirandes at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mirandes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Jordi Masip

Valladolid · G

7.9

Match Events

3'

Raúl Moro↳ Luis Pérez

31'

Mathis Lachuer

41'

Anuar

61'

Iván Sánchez← Raúl Moro

62'

Marcos André← Álvaro Negredo

63'

César Tárrega

67'

L. de León← A. La Gumina

70'

S. Jurić← César de la Hoz

70'

David Torres← Sergio Escudero

72'

Mathis Lachuer

72'

Mathis Lachuer

75'

Álvaro Sanz← David Vicente

81'

D. Luna← Tachi

82'

Barbu← Pablo Tomeo

82'

Gabri Martínez← Carlos Martín

90+2'

Iván Sánchez

90'

Koke← Monchu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MirandesValladolid

Overview

46%Possession54%

11Total Shots15

5Corners4

9Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots15

3On Target6

6Off Target7

2Blocked2

7Inside Box8

4Outside Box7

Passing

46%Possession54%

382Total Passes464

290Accurate Passes386

76%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

3Offsides2

Match Recap: Mirandes vs Valladolid

Valladolid beat Mirandes 1-0 in Segunda División on May 4, 2024.

Goals: Raúl Moro (3').

Valladolid controlled possession (54%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Anduva in Miranda de Ebro.

Mirandes vs Valladolid — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Mirandes vs Valladolid