Valladolid 0–1 Cultural Leonesa: Result & Stats

Valladolid

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cultural Leonesa

D. Collado 6'

9/28/2025

Segunda División · Round 7Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Valladolid62%

×Draw22%

Cultural Leonesa16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValladolidExpected goals in this matchCultural Leonesa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.82

Valladolid

1.88

Cultural Leonesa

0.82

Valladolid creates 129% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.72

creates per match

0.72

0.92

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Valladolid

1.72

Cultural Leonesa

0.72

allows per match

Valladolid

0.92

Cultural Leonesa

2.04

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

Valladolid-0.12scores less

Cultural Leonesa+0.28scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valladolid ↓

Cultural Leonesa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Valladolid or draw

84%

Valladolid or Cultural Leonesa

78%

Draw or Cultural Leonesa

38%

Winning margin

Valladolid wins by 2+

37%

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Valladolid 1+ goals

85%

Valladolid 2+ goals

56%

Valladolid 3+ goals

29%

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals

56%

Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals

20%

Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Valladolid (draw refunded)

80%

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valladolid at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.92 · 5 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.04 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valladolid attack 1.72 + Cultural Leonesa defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.88

Cultural Leonesa attack 0.72 + Valladolid defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Valladolid scores more

62%

level

22%

Cultural Leonesa scores more

16%

Valladolid at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Valladolid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Guilherme Fernandes

Valladolid · G

8.2

Match Events

6'

D. Collado↳ R. Sobrino

19'

Roger Hinojo

33'

Juanmi Latasa

38'

Iván Alejo

41'

Peter Federico← A. Ndiaye

44'

58'

59'

64'

72'

72'

73'

J. Larios← D. Collado

73'

74'

75'

80'

83'

Trilli← I. Alejo

84'

P. Cortes← R. Hinojo

88'

M. Justo← R. Sobrino

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValladolidCultural

Overview

69%Possession31%

18Total Shots9

2Corners2

14Fouls21

Shots

18Total Shots9

1On Target4

14Off Target3

3Blocked2

13Inside Box5

5Outside Box4

Passing

69%Possession31%

540Total Passes248

443Accurate Passes153

82%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls21

3Yellow Cards3