Cultural Leonesa 1–0 Valladolid: Result & Stats

Cultural Leonesa

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Valladolid

L. Chacon 29'

4/4/2026

Segunda División · Round 34Estadio Municipal Reino de León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Cultural Leonesa32%

×Draw28%

Valladolid40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cultural LeonesaExpected goals in this matchValladolid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.25

Cultural Leonesa

1.07

Valladolid

1.25

Valladolid creates 17% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 67 away

0.76

creates per match

1.06

1.44

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Cultural Leonesa

0.76

Valladolid

1.06

allows per match

Cultural Leonesa

1.44

Valladolid

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Valladolid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Leonesa ↓

Valladolid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cultural Leonesa or draw

60%

Cultural Leonesa or Valladolid

72%

Draw or Valladolid

68%

Winning margin

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+

12%

Valladolid wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals

66%

Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals

29%

Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals

9%

Valladolid 1+ goals

71%

Valladolid 2+ goals

36%

Valladolid 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)

44%

Valladolid (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Leonesa at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.44 · 25 matches

Valladolid away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.39 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Leonesa attack 0.76 + Valladolid defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.07

Valladolid attack 1.06 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cultural Leonesa scores more

32%

level

28%

Valladolid scores more

40%

Valladolid at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Valladolid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

J. Ponceau

Valladolid · M

7.9

Match Events

-5'

17'

19'

21'

29'

34'

D. Collado← L. Ribeiro

37'

Carlos Clerc

45+1'

Homam Ahmed

51'

S. Biuk← S. Canos

53'

Ivan Calero

63'

Bicho← S. Maestre

63'

R. Hinojo← R. Tresaco

66'

N. Ohio← Peter Federico

66'

Marcos Andre← J. Latasa

75'

I. Alejo← C. Michelin

75'

V. A. Meseguer Cavas← S. Juric

78'

Julien Ponceau

89'

R. Sobrino← H. Al Amin

89'

M. Diallo Selu←

90+2'

Édgar Badía

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CulturalValladolid

Overview

44%Possession56%

7Total Shots4

3Corners2

16Fouls12

Shots

7Total Shots4

3On Target2

4Off Target2

0Blocked0

5Inside Box3

2Outside Box1

Passing

44%Possession56%

400Total Passes502

333Accurate Passes440

83%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls12

6Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2