Valladolid 0–4 Castellón: Result & Stats

Valladolid

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Castellón

B. Cipenga 81'

Barri 38', 24'

O. Camara 21'

2/8/2026

Segunda División · Round 25Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Valladolid39%

×Draw24%

Castellón37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValladolidExpected goals in this matchCastellón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.55

Valladolid

1.58

Castellón

1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.72

creates per match

2.18

0.92

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Valladolid

1.72

Castellón

2.18

allows per match

Valladolid

0.92

Castellón

1.44

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

-0.61scores less than expected

finishing

Valladolid-0.12scores less

Castellón-0.61scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valladolid ↓

Castellón →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Valladolid or draw

63%

Valladolid or Castellón

76%

Draw or Castellón

61%

Winning margin

Valladolid wins by 2+

19%

Castellón wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Valladolid 1+ goals

79%

Valladolid 2+ goals

47%

Valladolid 3+ goals

21%

Castellón 1+ goals

79%

Castellón 2+ goals

46%

Castellón 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Valladolid (draw refunded)

51%

Castellón (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valladolid at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.92 · 5 matches

Castellón away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.44 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valladolid attack 1.72 + Castellón defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.58

Castellón attack 2.18 + Valladolid defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Valladolid scores more

39%

level

24%

Castellón scores more

37%

Valladolid at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Valladolid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Barri

Castellón · M

9.3

Match Events

21'

O. Camara↳ B. Gerenabarrena

24'

Barri↳ I. Suero

33'

ChukyGoal cancelled

38'

Barri

46'

M. Jaouab← P. Tomeo

46'

J. Latasa← V. Erlien

46'

L. Sanseviero← S. Biuk

52'

Alberto Jiménez

55'

Víctor Meseguer

64'

A. Mabil← R. Sanchez

64'

A. Calatrava← I. Suero

70'

Beñat Gerenabarrena

72'

A. Jakobsen← O. Camara

75'

J. Ponceau← V. A. Meseguer Cavas

80'

S. Ruiz← I. Fadel

80'

M. Doue← Barri

81'

B. Cipenga↳ A. Calatrava

83'

I. Alani← M. Maroto

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValladolidCastellón

Overview

50%Possession50%

9Total Shots12

3Corners3

15Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots12

3On Target4

3Off Target5

3Blocked3

4Inside Box7

5Outside Box5

Passing

50%Possession50%

383Total Passes392

305Accurate Passes307

80%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

7Offsides2

Segunda División: Valladolid 0–4 Castellón

Castellón beat Valladolid 4-0 in Segunda División on February 8, 2026.

Goals: O. Camara (21'), Barri (24', 38'), B. Cipenga (81').

Valladolid controlled possession (50%) and registered 9 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla in Valladolid.

Valladolid vs Castellón — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Valladolid 0–4 Castellón