Castellón 0–1 Valladolid: Result & Stats

Castellón

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Valladolid

J. Latasa 39'

8/22/2025

Segunda División · Round 2Estadio Municipal de Castalia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Castellón46%

×Draw26%

Valladolid28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CastellónExpected goals in this matchValladolid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.11

Castellón

1.48

Valladolid

1.11

Castellón creates 33% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 67 away

1.56

creates per match

1.06

1.16

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Castellón

1.56

Valladolid

1.06

allows per match

Castellón

1.16

Valladolid

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Castellón+0.00on par

Valladolid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellón ↓

Valladolid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Castellón or draw

72%

Castellón or Valladolid

74%

Draw or Valladolid

54%

Winning margin

Castellón wins by 2+

23%

Valladolid wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Castellón 1+ goals

77%

Castellón 2+ goals

43%

Castellón 3+ goals

19%

Valladolid 1+ goals

67%

Valladolid 2+ goals

30%

Valladolid 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Castellón (draw refunded)

62%

Valladolid (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castellón at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.16 · 64 matches

Valladolid away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.39 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castellón attack 1.56 + Valladolid defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.48

Valladolid attack 1.06 + Castellón defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Castellón scores more

46%

level

26%

Valladolid scores more

28%

Castellón at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Castellón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

P. Tomeo

Valladolid · D

8.3

Match Events

29'

33'

36'

39'

54'

56'

61'

M. Doue← Barri

62'

Serpeta← S. Ruiz

68'

N. Markanich← B. Gerenabarrena

68'

P. Santiago← O. Camara

72'

Trilli← I. Alejo

72'

I. Alani← V. A. Meseguer Cavas

72'

X. Moreno← A. Ndiaye

76'

Stanko Jurić

84'

K. Mamah← A. Mabil

86'

M. Maroto← Chuki

90+3'

I. Garriel← S. Biuk

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CastellónValladolid

Overview

63%Possession37%

11Total Shots10

8Corners9

14Fouls19

Shots

11Total Shots10

4On Target4

4Off Target3

3Blocked3

6Inside Box8

5Outside Box2

Passing

63%Possession37%

464Total Passes279

362Accurate Passes189

78%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls19

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides3

Segunda División: Castellón 0–1 Valladolid

Valladolid beat Castellón 1-0 in Segunda División on August 22, 2025.

Goals: J. Latasa (39').

Castellón controlled possession (63%) and registered 11 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Castalia.

Castellón vs Valladolid — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Castellón 0–1 Valladolid