Valladolid 0–1 Burgos: Result & Stats

Valladolid

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Burgos

D. Gonzalez Ballesteros 90' (pen)

3/28/2026

Segunda División · Round 32Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Valladolid51%

×Draw28%

Burgos21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValladolidExpected goals in this matchBurgos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.78

Valladolid

1.39

Burgos

0.78

Valladolid creates 78% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 105 away

1.52

creates per match

0.79

0.76

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Valladolid

1.52

Burgos

0.79

allows per match

Valladolid

0.76

Burgos

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valladolid+0.00on par

Burgos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valladolid ↓

Burgos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Valladolid or draw

79%

Valladolid or Burgos

72%

Draw or Burgos

49%

Winning margin

Valladolid wins by 2+

25%

Burgos wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Valladolid 1+ goals

75%

Valladolid 2+ goals

40%

Valladolid 3+ goals

16%

Burgos 1+ goals

54%

Burgos 2+ goals

18%

Burgos 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Valladolid (draw refunded)

71%

Burgos (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valladolid at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.76 · 63 matches

Burgos away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.25 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valladolid attack 1.52 + Burgos defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.39

Burgos attack 0.79 + Valladolid defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Valladolid scores more

51%

level

28%

Burgos scores more

21%

Valladolid at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Valladolid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

A. Cantero

Burgos · G

8.3

Match Events

-5'

11'

14'

61'

63'

68'

69'

V. Mollejo← Curro

69'

M. Gonzalez← F. Nino

80'

O. Luengo← S. Gonzalez

81'

B. Martinez← I. Cordoba

82'

S. Biuk← S. Canos

82'

N. Ohio← Chuki

85'

David González

90+4'

Mario González

90+5'

A. Bunuel← D. Gonzalez Ballesteros

90'

D. Gonzalez BallesterosPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValladolidBurgos

Overview

54%Possession46%

11Total Shots7

0.59Expected Goals (xG)0.94

6Corners1

17Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots7

4On Target2

5Off Target1

2Blocked4

6Inside Box5

5Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

490Total Passes431

405Accurate Passes345

83%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls12

2Yellow Cards5

1Offsides2

Segunda División: Valladolid 0–1 Burgos

Burgos beat Valladolid 1-0 in Segunda División on March 28, 2026.

Goals: D. Gonzalez Ballesteros (90' pen).

Valladolid controlled possession (54%) and registered 11 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla in Valladolid.

Valladolid vs Burgos — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Valladolid 0–1 Burgos