Burgos 0–1 Valladolid: Result & Stats

Burgos

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Valladolid

Chuki 56'

10/12/2025

Segunda División · Round 9Estadio Municipal de El Plantío

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Burgos46%

×Draw28%

Valladolid26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurgosExpected goals in this matchValladolid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.94

Burgos

1.33

Valladolid

0.94

Burgos creates 41% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 63 away

1.26

creates per match

1.11

0.76

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Burgos

1.26

Valladolid

1.11

allows per match

Burgos

0.76

Valladolid

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burgos+0.00on par

Valladolid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burgos ↓

Valladolid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Burgos or draw

74%

Burgos or Valladolid

72%

Draw or Valladolid

54%

Winning margin

Burgos wins by 2+

21%

Valladolid wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Burgos 1+ goals

74%

Burgos 2+ goals

38%

Burgos 3+ goals

15%

Valladolid 1+ goals

61%

Valladolid 2+ goals

24%

Valladolid 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Burgos (draw refunded)

63%

Valladolid (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burgos at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.76 · 105 matches

Valladolid away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.40 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burgos attack 1.26 + Valladolid defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.33

Valladolid attack 1.11 + Burgos defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Burgos scores more

46%

level

28%

Valladolid scores more

26%

Burgos at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Burgos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Chuki

Valladolid · M

7.7

Match Events

-5'

-5'

8'

21'

22'

35'

38'

Chuki← S. Canos

44'

Iván Morante

45+2'

Álex Lizancos

46'

A. Cordoba← D. Gonzalez Ballesteros

46'

I. Cordoba← I. Morante

55'

Florian Miguel

56'

Chuki

64'

M. Mejia← M. Gonzalez

64'

F. Garcia← K. Appin

68'

Sergio González

70'

G. Bueno← I. Garriel

70'

Marcos Andre← Peter Federico

73'

Stanko Jurić

75'

Fernando Niño

75'

Stipe Biuk

75'

I. Alani← V. A. Meseguer Cavas

75'

J. Ponceau← S. Biuk

83'

David Torres

90'

Chuky

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurgosValladolid

Overview

48%Possession52%

7Total Shots11

2Corners2

16Fouls28

Shots

7Total Shots11

1On Target3

6Off Target5

0Blocked3

6Inside Box6

1Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

306Total Passes343

207Accurate Passes242

68%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls28

8Yellow Cards7

4Offsides2

Segunda División: Burgos 0–1 Valladolid

Valladolid beat Burgos 1-0 in Segunda División on October 12, 2025.

Goals: Chuki (56').

Valladolid controlled possession (52%) and registered 11 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de El Plantío in Burgos.

Burgos vs Valladolid — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Burgos 0–1 Valladolid